UK Climate Change Committee advises on Seventh Carbon Budget

The UK Government climate advisors says electrification will need to make up 60% of emissions reductions by 2040.

The Climate Change Committee (CCC) sets out how to decarbonise the UK by 2050, and what decisions are needed to ensure success.

It has modelled how to reduce emissions by 87% compared to 1990 levels by 2040.

The recommended level of the Seventh Carbon Budget is 535 MtCO2e, including emissions from international aviation and shipping. 

The advice on the Seventh Carbon Budget (2038-42) finds that:

• Electrification makes up 60% of emissions reductions by 2040. This includes decarbonising the grid and replacing fossil fuelled cars and heating systems with electric alternatives (EVs and heat pumps). Globally, almost twice as much is invested in clean energy as in fossil fuels, with clean energy investment expected to reach US$2trln in 2024.
• The roll-out of required technologies is similar to comparable countries (Netherlands and Ireland) and previous UK technology roll-outs (mobiles, fridges and internet connection).
• Investment this decade creates savings over time. These savings are realised on a cross-economy basis during the Seventh Carbon Budget period (2038 – 2042) and grow to 2050 and beyond. The estimated net costs are 0.2% of GDP p.a. on average.

Estimated percentage of emissions reduction by 2040 per sector:

• 27% from surface transport
• 14% from homes (residential buildings)
• 12% electricity supply
• 11% from industry
• 7% from agriculture and land use
• 5% from aviation
• 24% from other sectors

IOM3 CEO Colin Church CEnv FIMMM says, 'The critical role of materials, minerals and mining is clear throughout the CCC’s seventh carbon budget. From sustainable aviation fuel meeting 17% of aviation fuel demand, hydrogen use for industrial sectors such as ceramics and securing supplies of critical materials, to CCS being deployed in the cement industry, refurbishment of the current building stock and replacement of major sources of heat with electric options in the steel and glass sectors.

'A better understanding of the materials we need and their responsible management will be essential to delivering the budget and reaching net-zero. Key measures identified include driving resource efficiency, securing supplies of critical minerals and supporting energy-intensive industries to decarbonise and remain internationally competitive. The recommended introduction of a non-legally binding benchmark against which emissions from imports can be monitored would provide invaluable insight to guide policy decisions and help to balance the risk of deindustrialisation. 

'The CCC also highlights the need to improve recycling rates and reduce waste. This must go further, however, and encompass wider measures that promote greater circularity and associated emissions reductions by ensuring minerals and materials are kept in the economy at their highest value for as long as possible. 

'As the advice highlights, none of this will be possible without enabling the growth of skilled workforces and supporting workers through the transition. It is encouraging to see calls for more proactive skills policy to ensure the development of transition plans for high-emitting industries, as well as the identification of priority skills gaps and strategies to address them.'